on voting 3rd party

TL; DR: our "winner take all" system for choosing elected officials only supports a two-party system.  when a third-party gains traction, it actually pulls *against* democracy because the direction that party leans bleeds votes off the most similar of the two parties, ending up electing the party that most of the voters don't want.

 

found this article in "America's Coloring Book" the USA Today, from a well-meaning young person who is clearly out of ideas when it comes to promoting the libertarian party in her corner of florida:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/09/21/republican-democrat-political-parties-voting-third-party-column/3484822001/

in short, the author is simply wrong.  and i don't mean wrong, as in, i have a different opinion.  

no, i mean wrong as in mathematically wrong.

and in doing so, she misses the point and hurts her cause.

during an election, you tend to have 1-n candidates for each office.  typically this means you have 2 candidates, democrat and republican.  if there are more candidates, they either list themselves as independent, or with some other party like green, libertarian, democratic socialist, or straight up socialist, or what have you.

in our voting system, whoever in that list gets the most votes wins.  
simple, right?
fair, right?
straight up democracy, the people have spoken, it's all good.

sometimes a party pulls from the edge of another party.  for example, the green party tends to pull from the far left of the democratic party.  in 1992 ross perot's independent run for president was built on a conservative platform that pulled mostly from bush and the republicans, which contributed to clinton being elected with only 43% of the popular vote.  

in short, a strong 3rd party "splits the vote" away from the platform that americans mostly want.

problem is those 3rd parties are typically a mix of ideals that other parties partially share.  for example, the libertarian party is an interesting 3rd party because it appeals to certain aspects of democrats (socially progressive) and republicans (small, short reaching gov't).

but in the end, given the way our elections work (most votes wins) voting for a 3rd party actually quite often helps the candidate that you dislike the most, and we collectively would not have elected.  for example, it's arguable that if ross perot had not entered the 1992 race, bush would have been re-elected, and bill clinton would've been sent back to arkansas.

even in the case of a libertarian candidate, whichever way we as a nation collectively lean, good chance the election will go away from that lean, not toward it.

for example:

a. if you're voting for the libertarian, but consider trump the "lesser of two evils", you're actually helping biden.  

b. if you're voting for the libertarian, but consider biden the "lesser of two evils", you're actually helping trump.

the only way voting for the libertarian gets the libertarian elected is if you get at least 30% maybe 40% of the voters to vote that way, and too many voters consider the risk to be too high.  that's when you hit the prisoner's dilemma.

the only way you open up elections, for any office, at any level of government, to 3rd parties is to change the voting system.  instead of one vote per office, you have one vote per candidate.  you rank the candidates.  if you want to vote libertarian, but consider democrat as the lesser of two evils, you can vote libertarian as 1, democrat as 2, and then if you want, the republican as 3, or 4, or maybe 7, depending on how many candidates there are.

the reason we don't have that system is due to the fact that keeping a solid two party system is the only thing the two dominant parties currently agree upon, ironically.

the libertarian party has been spinning their wheels in the mud for decades now, trying to get the attention they feel they deserve.  their weak hand, which they think is their strong hand, is to appeal to americans' dissatisfaction with the two major parties, asking them to vote their conscience.  problem is, again, due to the prisoner's dilemma, collective inertia is too strong, and motivating at minimum 15-20% of voters to shift is herculean.  and it's not only that.  recalling perot again, while he did grab 19% of the popular vote, he was never the winner of any state, so pulled down a whopping zero, that's right zero, electoral votes.  not even one vote from a state that allows apportionment.  

that kind of appeal is not going to change things.  the only thing that will help libertarians, or any 3rd party for that matter, is a change to the voting system.  and since legislation is never going to do it, the only appeal left is for the courts, including scotus, the declare the current system unconstitutional.  which up until now, it's not.

no answers here.  no proposed solutions.  just a short exercise in exploring why 3rd parties are doomed given the current systems in place. 

on white supremacists

TL; DR: whether trump himself is a white supremacist or not is moot.  he sees white supremacists as a large untapped market, voting-bloc-wise.  to them, trump is "their guy", and the size of this voting bloc is unfortunately large and valuable.

 

i don't know if donald trump is a racist.  

but what he's told us in no uncertain terms through his words and actions, an inactions, is that he considers white supremacists to be a voting bloc that he owns.  to them, he's "their guy".

magas can post ad infinitum on social media about how the democratic party was the party of slavery and the party of racism, y'know, back in the 1800s, but in the end, the election in 2020 is about 2020.  

and let's ask ourselves, who are white supremacists voting for in 2020?  biden?  i don't think so.  

who did they vote for in 2016?  hillary?  i don't think so.  

republicans in 2020 seem to be taking credit for abolishing slavery when democrats wanted it to continue, y'know, back in the 1860s, but which party do the white supremacists of 2020 belong to?  i guess at some point over the past 160 years, they flipped.

want more proof:

in last night's presidential debate, trump was given the chance to speak to (and we all expected him to denounce) white supremacists, neo-nazis, proud boys, and anti-semites (ie "very fine people") who created mayhem and murder in charlottesville.

his message?: "stand back and stand by"

and what's more?  turns out that was not off the top of his head.  that message was in his prep notes.

let that sink in.

there are dozens if not hundreds of american issues on the line in the election, as with in any election of our chief executive, but maybe if you can single out this one for a second...

who are the white supremacists voting for?

i dunno... maybe vote for the other guy.

 

 

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on gotchas

TL; DR: the fact that you can find hypocrisy in the things politicians say and do, is nothing new.  in the past, there has been value in effecting change by pointing it out.  however, we have gotten to the point where it no longer matters.  politicians are no longer guided by what they did or said before, and it binds them in no way to what they say or do in the future.  there are no more gotchas.

 

watching and reading the news lately?
discussing and debating recent events with your friends an political foes?

in doing so, ever run across something that someone "on the other team" did or said that is hypocritical to something they did or said before? 

oh boy. that's when you got 'em! nothing wins a debate more solid than catching a politician, especially on video, putting political expediency in front of consistency. right?  i mean... um... right?

guess what? it no longer matters. hypocrisy is no longer a thing.

neither are "gotchas".  there's no more such thing as a "gotcha".

elected officials are going to do what they want, when they want, and their previous positions and behaviors mean nothing.  nor does what they say or do today, have any bearing on what they'll do tomorrow.

in 2016 obama did his constitutional duty and nominated merrick garland to fill the scotus seat vacated by antonin scalia. mcconnell and the senate gop sold a story that with 9 months left in obama's term, and the 2016 campaign underway, seating a new judge should wait until after election day, giving americans a direct choice in who should fill the seat.  as such, mcconnell ignored the advise and consent role of the senate, and wouldn't allow a vote.  wouldn't even consider it, wouldn't even discuss it.

now we have a vacancy within two months of the election, and mcconnell is suddenly all about "defending the constitution as written".

how does the GOP defend this apparent hypocrisy? they don't care. 2016 is history, and as long as they have the discretion, and they do, they'll do whatever they want thanks.

used to be if you could find a politician or party flip-flopping out of convenience, you could call them out on it and embarass them, sometimes into reversing back into consistency.  not anymore.  hypocrisy is so rampant throughout politics, it's normal, and no one cares.

you think you found a "gotcha" that you can yell about, laugh about, point at?  you didn't.  there are no more gotchas.  

maybe just out of habit, mcconnell, graham, and the rest of the trump bootlickers (who just 4 years ago were fighting against trump tooth and nail), cooked up some story about how there's:

1. one rule if the part of the president matches the party power balance of the senate, and 

2. a different rule if the party of the president is different than the party of the power balance of the senate.  

some even cooked up some stats about how it's been this way, past practice and precedent since the 1800s or something, and others who say that's not true.  others who say the democrats pull the same shit in the past.  blah, blah, blah...

none of it escapes the fact that the GOP...  the self-proclaimed party of "the constitution as written", are today, in 2020, abiding by the constitution as written.  that even if the president has one day left in his term, he still has the duties and responsibilities of president.  and by the letter of the law, they're right.  even i believe that's right.  even the late justice ginsberg said that was right.  the constitution isn't specific about a lot, but it is specific about that.

but... thus admitting that in 2016, the constitution as written didn't fit what they wanted to do, they ignored the constitution as written.

mcconnell says that in 2016, obama's duty was to nominate a judge, and he did.

and in 2020 it's trump's job to nominate a judge and he did.

both presidents did their job.  the problem isn't at the white house.  the problem is the senate.

mcconnell says that it was in the discretion of the senate, in it's advise and consent role, to decide not to vote on, consider, or even discuss the nominee, because the people had already spoken when they gave the senate majority to the GOP, thus the people implied that they don't want the democrat president the ability to appoint a judge to the scotus.  

nope. that's not how the constitution works.  the congress and the president are in two different branches, elected in two different ways.  you're not allowed to logically connect them that way.  in fact, they're designed to be separate.  the people are allowed to vote for a republican senator and at the same time vote for a democrat president. they're two different elections.  could be two different reasons.  that's allowed.  and one creates no inferential decision on the other.

if mcconnell had allowed a vote on garland, and it failed, then fine.  but that isn't what happened.

we're in a post-trump, post-truth, post-facts era.  all that matters is today, and what you want to do now. 

so how do we elect officials to represent us if there's no trust for us to understand how they plan on representing us?  well, good news is, you can still tell how your local elected official is going to perform.  you no longer know this by what they tell you.  you only know by what political party they belong to.  because that's what congress is now.  it's no longer hundreds of representatives putting their constituents first.  it's party above everything.  it's party above country, party above constitution, party above the anthem, above americans, even above their own office.  it's party above all.  

there is no more United States of America.  

what we have are the the Two Oppositional Political Parties of America. 

you down with OPP?  yes you are. 

and the nation continues to devolve.

on political divisiveness, part II

you gotta hand it to trump.  until 2016, the engagement of most citizens in political conversation was quite a bit less than it is today.  and in a way, that's a good thing.  we should always stay engaged, learning, exchanging ideas.  it's just that most of us put more energy and time into our work, our families, our friends, our pastimes, and previously perhaps deferred politics to the elected officials that we put in office, specifically so that they could represent us.

but it seems to me, the polarizing affect trump has had on america in general, and each of us in particular, while good for getting us engaged, has been bad if we value unity as a people.  i mean, we're always going to have parties in opposition, differing viewpoints, and that's healthy.  the world has too many bad examples of what happens when one party or one ideology holds singular power for too long.  in a way, america benefits when the democrats and republicans, hold each other in check, to help defend against extremism, and hopefully end up in situation where most of what gets done are things that are agreeable to both sides.

in a more perfect world, we deal with opposing ideas but first starting the conversation finding and laying out the common ground, and then discussing and debating differences from there.  but lately (if ever?) that isn't how it works. when we disagree, we tend to start talking about the aspects of the issue that are the most opposite.

examples: 

1) when talking about abortion, rather than starting from the common ground of where life comes from and why the health of everyone involved is important, and going from there, we tend to start with the ideas of "i should have the freedom to do what i want, unpressured by government", versus "all life must be preserved and protected by government in spite of what those involved want or decide to do". 

2) when talking about immigration, rather than starting from the common ground that we want our immigration policy to best fit the social and economic needs of our country and its healthy growth, we tend to start with "illegals are breaking the law and must be kicked out, and a big wall for keeping them and everyone else out", versus "we should let anyone in who wants to live free".

on trump's unfitness for the office

TL; DR: just looking at hard evidence of words and actions, there are 759 reasons why trump is not fit to serve in the office of president.  confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance combine to cause trump supporters to either not see, or not care about any of them, or to consider "the other side" as worse.

 

 

while it might be easy to dismiss me as a never-trumper, hater, or whatevs... i'm actually not. 

i like to give points for results. 

in 2016, the idea that we had a solid chance to elect a businessman to be president meant to me that words and intentions that drive much of politics could possibly be replaced with actions and results.  and if trump delivered results, it would be disingenuous to say that he doesn't deserve a second term.  i mean, let's keep emotion out of this.  he either did a good job or he didn't.

but here we are in 2020.  the results are in, and the scoreboard is posted.  he failed.

this article below is the antidote for the illness of chronic confirmation bias that seems to afflict many in the maga cult.

meaning even if 95% of the article linked below are outright lies...

that still leaves 40 reasons why Trump is unfit to hold the office

and given that 100% of them have references to back them up...

i'm figuring that maybe the amount that are actually true is a little more than 5%

take a nice casual stroll thru this fairly comprehensive review of the past few years:

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/columns/reasons-why-donald-trump-is-unfit-to-be-president

on just letting the man do the job we elected him to do

TL;DR: supporting trump means that you have to abandon the concept of separation of powers as designed and written into the US constitution.  the power that trump supporters want trump to have has many parallels to leaders around the world that are dictators, authoritarians, monarchs, or fascists. 

 

i hear this a lot from the right:

we elected trump to be president, but when congress in general, and the democrats in particular, and the majority of the news media, are doing nothing but obstructing him.  imagine how much more he can accomplish if we just got out of his way and let him do the job we elected him to do.  we had this one great opportunity to elect a successful businessman to be president, so that he could bring innovative and cost-effective strategies to government to make it run better.  this opportunity is squandered when the legislature and judiciary, not to mention the media, all keep getting in his way.  this is just evidence that they all hate him more than they love america.

like... wow...

i know, right?

here's the thing though.  for about half the country, these ideas are true to them.

there are millions of americans who have allowed themselves to become so delusional, that they actually believe this.  of course this attitude divides rather than works to unite.  but more than that, it shows an extreme lack of understanding of what america is, and why the constitution is written the way it is, and our government is designed the way it is.

so let's take those ideas above, and let them play out to see where we end up:

1. when you want a legislature to rubber stamp what the chief executive (ie, president) wants...

2. when you want federal judges, especially supreme court justices, who “lean your way”, rather than those who are impartial...

3. when you wish america and the media would just let the man fix the country “like we elected him to do”...

it sure sounds to me like you want the same system russia, china, north korea, saudi arabia, and several african dictatorships have. 

...and not to mention, for a while there, venezuela!

(i bring up venezuela, because that seems to be the flavor of the month for those on the right to back up their idea that socialism is bad... that any country who implements socialist programs will eventually become venezuela.)

all said with a straight face.  no understanding of what checks-and-balances are, and why they exist, both the other branches and levels of government, and our independent media, no, just a desire to give trump (or obama, or bush, or any one person, for that matter), The Reins.  

so...

are you sure about that?

are you really sure a government completely aligned behind one person's agenda is what we want?

in other words, when trump supporters say they "love america", but also have these kinds of ideas, i'm confused about what they mean by that.

these are today's conservatives, and today's GOP.  the same people who called obama a dictator and wanna-be king are all for everyone getting out of trump's way.  the same people who were perfectly fine with mcconnell declaring publicly that the official stance of the GOP in 2009 was obstruction, are all about pointing out democrat obstruction.

here's what they really mean:
they're ok with dictators as long as it's on their side.
they're ok with obstruction as long as they're the ones obstructing.

and if those are the new positions of the GOP, that's actually fine.  a party can adopt whatever platform they want and let the voters decide, but to pretend that you believe obstruction per se is wrong, or that america should not be led by a dictator, just another bag of lies.

on how the impeachment worked out

TL;DR: going toe-to-toe between conservatives and liberals about why the impeachment process happened, if it should have happened, etc. often comes down to a belief about what trump did, why he did it, (if he even did it) and if he did, was it even wrong, or illegal, or significant enough to warrant an impeachment at all.  in the end, you just spin in the mud.  in this article. i take a slightly different approach and isolate out and discuss as impeachable only those actions that are undisputed facts, often recorded on video, and often enough admitted by trump himself, often proudly.  in the end, yeah, his offenses fell squarely into those the founders considered major enough to warrant impeachment.

 

yeah, we get it.  there's a lot of stuff like, he did this, he didn't do that, you can't prove this, even the "other side" did that too, or even worse...

whatever.
like it or not, the process worked as designed, and the president was acquitted.

no use going toe to toe, trading punches, making points that are assumptions or opinions.  it isn't going to resolve anything, and only results in shouting past each other.


so let's try something different.


let's sum things up by making a few points that are undisputed by either side, shall we?

undisputed point #1: trump asked russia to hack hillary to find missing emails, etc

this is not disputed.  it's in fact video recorded.  he repeats it often, and seems to be quite proud about it, defiant even.

giving foreign interests any influence or control of our internal political processes is one of the primary reasons why the impeachment clause exists to begin with.  the founding fathers wanted to make sure that the person elected to the office which *presides* over how our government runs is fully defending it from foreign powers.

therefore, a fundamental flaw.  it almost falls under the category of "you had one job".

trump on the other hand, went the other way with it.  i'm thinking his position might be, why have power if you can't use it to help himself?

if you've got a problem with the steele dossier, then you have to have a problem with this too.

undisputed point #2: at best, trump ‘incentivized’ ukraine to dig into biden

forget the words "pressured", "extorted", or "bribed".  ukraine wants and needs to stay on the good side of america, represented in this case by the chief executive, trump.

now that we're beyond whether or not a connection between aid and dirt can be proven, since the impeachment is over, now we're free to take a look at what happened, why and when; what was offered, why and when; what was expected, why and when; and what was ultimately done, why, and when.

let's say you need something from the president, that he has the discretion to give, and you talk on the phone with him about that stuff you need, that he has the discretion to hold up, if he wants to.  he offers the help you want, then follows up that point with "but i need a favor though".

if you say yes, you figured that increases the chances he'll help you, nor or in the future.
if you say no, you figure that could risk the chances that he'll help you.

that's how favors work.  zelensky may not have been "pressured", but the president of the united states at best incentivized a foreign leader to investigate a case, that trump believes shows strong indicators of corruption.

c'mon...

if you ask fox news, they were on both sides of the fence:

a. for some, there was no way trump linked aid to fighting corruption.
b. for some, trump had every right to protect taxpayer money by linking aid to fighting corruption.

the fact that fox news isn't even on the same page, says a lot.

if biden wasn't a presidential candidate, that call never happens and that favor never asked for.  can that be proven?  apparently not.  but... c'mon.

but check this out...

trump was asked weeks later if he ever discussed corruption with a foreign leader that did not involve someone running for president against him, and he could not answer that.  he said he'd have to check.  we're waiting.

undisputed point #3: trump asked china to do BOTH

he has asked china to hack political opponents, and he has tried guilting china ("if they would do the right thing") into investigating corruption committed by the bidens.

and there's no debating over quid pro quo here.  trump came right out and asked china to investigate.  sorry magas, it's a fact.

here's the thing though...

trump doesn't just do stupid things.  it's that when he gets caught, he often doubles down, seemingly as a message to say, it wasn't wrong then, and it's still not wrong now.  it's almost as if he figures that if he doesn't double down, that's sort of an admission that what he did the first time was wrong.  and for him, unwavering confidence is so much more important that doing the right thing.

undisputed point #4: trump is completely ok with accepting campaign assistance from foreign sources

he admitted it on national tv.  says he wouldn't have a problem with it, he'd listen to it, he wouldn't contact the fbi.  he said "it's called oppo research", even when it's coming from a foreign government looking to earn some favors and influence.  when trump was told that the fbi director claims that it would be illegal to not report it, trump's reply "that's not how the world works".  then later caved and  said "ok maybe i'd call the fbi, but i'd still listen to it; there's no harm in listening".

according to the federalist papers, one of the primary reasons for the impeachment clause was to provide congress with a mechanism for performing overwatch on the executive branch, as a check and balance, and primarily to ensure that the president is defending the nation from foreign influence  in the areas of authority covered by his office.

nope.  trump is 180 degrees in the opposite direction.  so much for conservatives loving those who "enforce the constitution as written".

undisputed point #5: trump's excuse that quid pro quo is used by presidents all the time

he's right.  they do.  quid pro quo (ie, negotiation, trade) is, in itself, not wrong.  in fact, it's hard to get anything done without it.  it is a valid and powerful tool, even in foreign policy.

but here's the thing.  it depends completely on what's being traded and why.

shooting someone is, in itself, not wrong.  it depends on if the person you shot broke into your house, threatening the lives of your family, or if the person you shot is a random innocent person in a shopping mall.  it's not about shooting, per se.  it's about who's being shot by whom, and why.

let's talk about trade.  trump is great at trade.  and he's doing his best making trade deals for the country, and for 50 years he's done a good job making trades for his businesses.  he even wrote (allegedly) a book called The Art of the Deal.  bestseller.  well known for a few decades now.

we hired a businessman to inject some business smarts into government.  business succeeds when it maximizes value for minimum cost.  government usually isn't incentivized to work that way.  so ok, elect a businessman president, and let's see how this goes.

the problem with trading when you’re the president is that as long as the trade benefits the country, great.  but if it benefits you personally or politically, or even appears to, you end up in deep shit and you need the power of the US Senate to bail you out.  trump doesn't appears to understand or care about the critical difference between those two.

undisputed point #6: the senate to the rescue

a. the GOP's position is basically, hey, the economy is clicking, and ok sure, he bent a few rules along the way, but when our enemies don't play by the rules, why put ourselves at a disadvantage?

b. trump's thinking, he's bent rules his whole life.  why would he change his formula for success now?  and if i was a supporter, i'd get that.

c. but in the end, as president you are entrusted with a lot of power, as long as you use that power in the context of doing your job for US.  when you use it for you, or worse, use it to given foreign powers control over our politics, that's a huge problem.  some would consider it treasonous.

not today though...  not today.  not by the GOP anyway.
they used to be against abuse of power.  now they're all for it.


i almost can't wait until trump is out of office someday, and watch all the GOP career politicians start yelling about how much they were "the one who was against trump the whole way".  ;-)  they were all against him in 2016.  they'll be against him again someday.  it's coming.